As one easily can see from the map above the Presidential Election result is very clear and easy to analyze. What is difficult though, is to forecast the consequences the result is going to have for the Mongolian people.
Elbegdorj won the Ulaanbaatar and eight aimags, while Enkhbayar largely won the countryside and secured 13 aimags. This largely confirms previous analysis of where the opposing sides have their core areas and main supporters.
The consequences of the changed policies since the downfall of the Soviet Union and when democratic reforms started, has been similar to several other post-communist states. The winners are relatively young people in urban areas, while the losers are people stuck in the countryside. You can say a lot of the Soviet style economy established in Mongolian, as the first development project of the Soviet Union. But it created a functioning economy for the people in the rural areas and provided them with publicly financed salary, education and health care.
The market economy reforms destroyed this and consequently the democratic opposition that ruled between 1996 and 2000 are blamed for this. This a phenomenon that makes them unpopular in rural areas. This might be unfair, as the former communist party, the MPRP, has basically followed similar policies, after their parliamentary election victory in 2000. This is interesting in itself because it is the providers of foreign aid and international development loans that in practice determines the Mongolian economic policy. Making it hard for Mongolian politicians to engage in policies that opposes demands of the aid and loan providers.
In this election Ts. Elbergdorj’s party, the MNDP, succeeded in getting the upper hand of Enkhbayar’s MPRP. In comparison Elbegdorj won the capital Ulaanbaatar with 55.6 percent of the votes, against Enkhbayar’s 43.2 percent. In the rest of the country it was tougher for Elbegdorj and in total he secured 51.2 percent nationally, while Enkhbayar got 47.4 percent.
The analysis also holds for Mongolia’s second largest city Darkhan. Elbegdorj won Darkhan with 51.9 percent, against Enkhbayar’s 47.1. In the surrounding aimag, Selenge, Elbegdorj won with 49.5 percent, against Enkhbayar’s 48.9 percent.
The election is thereby over and Mongolia has a new president in Ts. Elbegdorj, and the important issue is what the new president is going to do with his newly won presidency? Is Elbegdorj going to grove and become a real statesman and engage in a policy for the benefit of the Mongolian people, or is he going to have his vengeance on the MPRP for how it has acted during earlier periods?
There are two aspects of this. First, we have the delicate situation in the Mongolian parliament, where the MNDP and the MPRP have joined in a so called great coalition. If this initiated by Elbegdorj’s victory in the presidential election should break up, then we have a situation similar to the one between 1997 and 2000, when the Democratic Alliance ruled with less than the required qualified majority, and where the MPRP president N. Bagabandi vetoed important decisions in the parliament, forcing the DA to change prime minister no less than four times. Elbegdorj have the same situation if the MNDP MP’s leave the government.
Second, this means that Elbegdorj’s power in this context is merely negative and defensive, as he cannot create a policy of his own, only stop MPRP from fulfilling its policy goals. This means that if Elbegdorj chooses this path he creates a situation where Mongolian politics becomes locked into a stalemate until a new election for parliament could be held.
The other path for Elbegdorj is to become Elbegdorj, the statesman and persuade his MNDP colleagues to remain in the coalition government. This is the more constructive path. What seems unlikely for him to choose this path is that his voters might be disappointed and that Elbegdorj’s main argument in the election was CHANGE… and keeping the coalition indicates business as usual.
The big issues therefore are: What is Elbegdorj going to do? What is the MNDP MPs going to do?
Elbegdorj won the Ulaanbaatar and eight aimags, while Enkhbayar largely won the countryside and secured 13 aimags. This largely confirms previous analysis of where the opposing sides have their core areas and main supporters.
The consequences of the changed policies since the downfall of the Soviet Union and when democratic reforms started, has been similar to several other post-communist states. The winners are relatively young people in urban areas, while the losers are people stuck in the countryside. You can say a lot of the Soviet style economy established in Mongolian, as the first development project of the Soviet Union. But it created a functioning economy for the people in the rural areas and provided them with publicly financed salary, education and health care.
The market economy reforms destroyed this and consequently the democratic opposition that ruled between 1996 and 2000 are blamed for this. This a phenomenon that makes them unpopular in rural areas. This might be unfair, as the former communist party, the MPRP, has basically followed similar policies, after their parliamentary election victory in 2000. This is interesting in itself because it is the providers of foreign aid and international development loans that in practice determines the Mongolian economic policy. Making it hard for Mongolian politicians to engage in policies that opposes demands of the aid and loan providers.
In this election Ts. Elbergdorj’s party, the MNDP, succeeded in getting the upper hand of Enkhbayar’s MPRP. In comparison Elbegdorj won the capital Ulaanbaatar with 55.6 percent of the votes, against Enkhbayar’s 43.2 percent. In the rest of the country it was tougher for Elbegdorj and in total he secured 51.2 percent nationally, while Enkhbayar got 47.4 percent.
The analysis also holds for Mongolia’s second largest city Darkhan. Elbegdorj won Darkhan with 51.9 percent, against Enkhbayar’s 47.1. In the surrounding aimag, Selenge, Elbegdorj won with 49.5 percent, against Enkhbayar’s 48.9 percent.
The election is thereby over and Mongolia has a new president in Ts. Elbegdorj, and the important issue is what the new president is going to do with his newly won presidency? Is Elbegdorj going to grove and become a real statesman and engage in a policy for the benefit of the Mongolian people, or is he going to have his vengeance on the MPRP for how it has acted during earlier periods?
There are two aspects of this. First, we have the delicate situation in the Mongolian parliament, where the MNDP and the MPRP have joined in a so called great coalition. If this initiated by Elbegdorj’s victory in the presidential election should break up, then we have a situation similar to the one between 1997 and 2000, when the Democratic Alliance ruled with less than the required qualified majority, and where the MPRP president N. Bagabandi vetoed important decisions in the parliament, forcing the DA to change prime minister no less than four times. Elbegdorj have the same situation if the MNDP MP’s leave the government.
Second, this means that Elbegdorj’s power in this context is merely negative and defensive, as he cannot create a policy of his own, only stop MPRP from fulfilling its policy goals. This means that if Elbegdorj chooses this path he creates a situation where Mongolian politics becomes locked into a stalemate until a new election for parliament could be held.
The other path for Elbegdorj is to become Elbegdorj, the statesman and persuade his MNDP colleagues to remain in the coalition government. This is the more constructive path. What seems unlikely for him to choose this path is that his voters might be disappointed and that Elbegdorj’s main argument in the election was CHANGE… and keeping the coalition indicates business as usual.
The big issues therefore are: What is Elbegdorj going to do? What is the MNDP MPs going to do?
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